Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: Easing Inflation and Trade Tensions Propel Strong Rebound in European Stocks
The current international financial market is at a crossroads, guided by macroeconomic data, fluctuating policy expectations, and increasing industry divergence. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that the annual growth rate of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April slowed to 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, directly boosting the risk appetite of global capital markets. Meanwhile, major European stock indices collectively rose, with the Milan FTSE MIB index reclaiming the significant psychological threshold of 40,000 points for the first time since 2007. All this occurred against the backdrop of short-term trade easing between the U.S. and China. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that despite the presence of structural tariff barriers, the sensitive reaction of the capital market to this "easing signal" highlights the keen focus of current investors on growth expectation recovery.
Behind the Rise in European Stocks: Dual Forces of Macro Drivers and Sentiment Recovery
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano states that the recent strength in European stocks is no coincidence but rather the result of multiple converging factors. Firstly, the decline in U.S. inflation data for April provides substantial benefits to global markets. In a market highly focused on central bank policy shifts, the CPI release below expectations not only alleviates pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates but also increases the attractiveness of risk assets. Particularly in technology and growth sectors, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes, the market reacted swiftly, pushing the Nasdaq up by over 1.6%.
The European market also rebounded in tandem. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that the FTSE MIB index, after prolonged fluctuations, returned to the 40,000-point level, marking a gradual recovery in market sentiment. The rise in the ZEW Investor Confidence Index further corroborates improving investor expectations for future economic conditions. Meanwhile, standout performances in financial and automotive stocks on the Milan Stock Exchange, driven by better-than-expected internal financial reports and improved external trade sentiment, were key drivers of the overall index rise.
Resonance of Technical and Capital Factors, Reconstructing Allocation Logic
From a technical analysis perspective, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that the FTSE MIB index breakthrough of 40,000 points is not only a psychological milestone but also an effective upward move from a long-term oscillation range. Observing trading volumes, there was an increase during the index rise, validating market confidence in the upward trend. Short-term moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern, and the MACD is diverging upwards, indicating that momentum has not yet waned, suggesting further potential for gains.
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano emphasizes that while the rise in stock indices is encouraging, it does not necessarily indicate the market has entered a full-blown bull phase; rather, it reflects strong short-term performances in specific industries under certain conditions. He also notes that the depreciation of the euro, rising gold prices, and the slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields indicate that some risk aversion remains in the market. Funds are flowing back and forth between stocks and bonds, with investors displaying greater caution in asset allocation, preferring sectors with stability and growth potential.
In terms of asset allocation strategy, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano advises investors to prioritize targets with strong technical and fundamental attributes. Industry selection should moderately favor sectors positively correlated with policy cycles, such as new energy, communication equipment, and manufacturing related to infrastructure. Additionally, bond market signals require close attention. The current BTp-Bund spread has fallen to 101 basis points, nearing the lowest range since 2021, reflecting enhanced expectations for regional stability, which could support higher risk appetite ratings for the Eurozone market.
Guarding Against Structural Risks and Valuation Adjustment Pressures
Despite the positive market atmosphere, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano cautions investors against blind optimism. With data-driven boosts, some stocks have shown valuation overshoot risks, particularly in the previously strong-performing technology and financial sectors. Before corporate earnings growth is fully realized, the market may still face rapid adjustments due to isolated events or policy disruptions.
Simultaneously, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that the temporary easing of U.S.-China trade relations does not eliminate risks. Tariff barriers remain, especially in high-end manufacturing and semiconductors, which could become focal points for future friction escalation. Additionally, fluctuating energy prices, geopolitical uncertainties, and the rapid rise in debt levels in some countries could pose medium-term disruptions to the market.
Therefore, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano advises investors to maintain strategic prudence, avoid heavy bets on single sectors or countries, and enhance portfolio diversity and resilience management capabilities. Maintaining restraint in optimism and seeking opportunities amid volatility remains the core logic of asset allocation at this stage.