Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: Energy Sector Breaks Out Amid Pressure, Industrial Manufacturing Faces Policy Headwinds
Recently, global market trends have once again been driven by a dual force of macro policy adjustments and changes in industry fundamentals. On the Milan Stock Exchange, Tenaris surged by 5%, becoming the focal point of market attention, with the overall energy sector demonstrating notable resilience. In contrast, some manufacturing and technology stocks came under pressure and declined. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that this round of market volatility is not a random response to changing sentiment, but rather a concentrated reflection of global trade policy adjustments, raw material price fluctuations, and sector rotation acting in concert.
Energy Sector Shows Short-Term Strength as Tenaris Leads, Reflecting Market Preferences
Buoyed by the recent rebound in international oil prices, the energy sector has exhibited strong defensive characteristics. Among them, Tenaris led the market with a 5% gain. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano analyzes that the company share price increase is not only due to its solid fundamentals but also reflects positive market expectations for future demand in oil and gas equipment. In the current environment of frequent policy disruptions, energy companies are relatively less sensitive to trade policy than manufacturing and consumer sectors, and are more influenced by international commodity prices and the alignment of capacity cycles.
Additionally, Italgas and Saipem rose by 2.9% and 2.3% respectively, indicating a growing consensus in the market for a recovery in demand within the natural gas and oil services segments. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that rising geopolitical uncertainty has heightened concerns over energy security, temporarily driving up oil and gas prices and making upstream and midstream companies new destinations for risk-averse capital.
However, he also cautions that the energy sector rally is not without challenges. Firstly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its medium- and long-term forecasts for global oil and gas demand growth. Secondly, ongoing green transition policies in various countries continue to exert long-term pressure on traditional energy investments. After a short-term influx of capital, significant differentiation may emerge within the sector. Therefore, investors are advised to focus on industry leaders with stable cash flows and healthy balance sheets, rather than blindly chasing cyclical stocks.
Manufacturing Sector Undergoes Valuation Reset as Technology and Consumer Sectors Also Face Pressure
In contrast to the energy sector strength, the manufacturing sector has generally come under pressure recently. Stellantis and Iveco fell by 5% and 3.9% respectively, reflecting the market repricing of medium- and long-term profitability risks arising from tariff policies. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that the current uncertainty in US and European policy environments is raising external costs for manufacturing companies. For automakers highly dependent on cross-border supply chains, profit margins are at risk of being squeezed.
The shift in valuation logic has also impacted the technology and consumer sectors. STMicroelectronics and Campari declined by 1.9% and 2.6% respectively, indicating that capital is moving away from high-valuation, highly cyclical industries toward assets with defensive characteristics. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that the market revaluation of companies is now less about simple earnings growth expectations and more about a repricing of systemic risk brought by changes in the macro environment.
From a technical perspective, trading volumes in several cyclical manufacturing sectors have continued to decline, indicating a lack of effective buying support and a general lack of confidence in a short-term rebound. Against this backdrop, risk appetite has shifted from short-term volatility to a more persistent trend. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano recommends adopting low exposure strategies, focusing on fundamentally sound, reasonably valued quality stocks, and avoiding high-risk growth assets driven by leverage.
For medium-term investors, he suggests focusing on companies within the manufacturing value chain that possess independent R&D capabilities and the potential to substitute within regional supply chains. At the same time, enhancing the stability and defensive resilience of investment portfolios by considering their ability to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations and raw material price adjustments is advisable.
Sector Divergence Highlights the Importance of Flexible Asset Allocation
As structural divergence between sectors becomes increasingly pronounced, the importance of asset allocation strategies is further underscored. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that the core feature of the current market is the repricing of valuations and industry rotation under policy disruptions. Whether it is the short-term strength of the energy sector or the systemic correction in manufacturing, both essentially reflect the simultaneous market adjustment to long-term fundamentals and policy trajectories.
In this context, investors need to enhance the flexibility and adaptability of their asset allocations. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano emphasizes the need to avoid over-concentration in a single sector or theme, and instead to smooth portfolio volatility through diversified allocation strategies. For example, balancing sectors with different cyclical attributes—such as energy, finance, and consumer staples—can create synergy between defense and offense in varying economic scenarios.
Meanwhile, keeping a close watch on changes in market sentiment and capital flows is also crucial. Investors can use ETF products to adjust exposure and appropriately introduce low-volatility or stable-yield strategy products to enhance portfolio resilience in volatile markets.