Investment Analyst Dario Giordano Explains: The Structural Drivers Behind U.S. Equities Reaching New Highs
As the second quarter of 2025 draws to a close, U.S. equities have once again reached record highs. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have set new records, with cyclical gains in the technology and banking sectors continuously improving market sentiment. The current rally is driven not only by signals of accommodative federal policy but also by the Trump administration adjustments in tariff policy, progress in negotiations between Canada and the European Union, and investor reassessment of the Federal Reserve future policy trajectory. According to Investment Analyst Dario Giordano, the robust performance of U.S. equities reflects not only optimism regarding a "soft landing" for the economy but also, more fundamentally, the ongoing structural adjustments within the AI and semiconductor industries.
Multiple Policy Tailwinds Drive Market Upside but Lead to Increasing Divergence
The Federal Reserve recently released mid-year stress test results that exceeded market expectations, with several banks successfully meeting regulatory requirements, providing a significant boost to the financial sector. At the same time, Trump has publicly called for the federal funds rate to be lowered to around 0.5%, intensifying market anticipation of a shift in monetary policy.
Statistics show that the S&P 500 rose 4.96% in June, with a cumulative increase of 10.57% in the second quarter, marking its best quarterly performance since 2023. The Nasdaq surged 17.75% over the same period, highlighting the strong momentum in the technology sector driven by AI. The share prices of tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, and Apple have all reached new highs, indicating renewed investor confidence in future revenue growth.
Nevertheless, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano cautions that structural divergence remains pronounced. Amazon and Alphabet have experienced phased corrections in their share prices, while chipmakers like AMD and Micron have also recorded declines, reflecting that market sentiment is not uniformly optimistic. He advises investors to focus on fundamental analysis during sector rotations and to avoid blindly chasing popular themes at the expense of sustained corporate profitability.
Tariff Policy and Inflation Expectations Intertwined, Macroeconomic Uncertainty Persists
Tariffs remain a significant variable influencing the market. The United States is resuming negotiations with Canada, while the European Union seeks exemptions for key industries, and the possibility of new tariffs on Japanese goods is now on the agenda. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that such policy shifts could impact the market on three levels: in the short term, they may trigger increased volatility; in the medium term, they could alter corporate profit expectations; and in the long term, they may reignite inflationary pressures.
According to forecasts from Fitch Ratings and Deutsche Bank, if the U.S. reinstates the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" policy on July 9, the inflation rate could rise above 4%, significantly higher than current market consensus. This would directly pressure manufacturing and tech hardware companies that rely on global supply chains, forcing an increase in operating costs.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve monetary policy flexibility could also be constrained. Should tariffs drive up core inflation, the planned interest rate cuts for the second half of the year may be delayed, with the risk of maintaining high rates through 2026. In response, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano suggests that investors should moderately reduce their concentration in high-valuation growth stocks and increase allocations to inflation-sensitive sectors such as utilities, energy, and defensive consumer goods to effectively hedge risks.
Reshaping the AI Industry Landscape, Driving the Technology Sector into a Phase of Practical Competition
The progress of generative AI is prompting technology companies to realign their strategic priorities. Apple is considering adopting technology models from Anthropic or OpenAI to replace its proprietary Foundation Models, thereby overcoming existing architectural bottlenecks. Meanwhile, Meta is consolidating its leadership in AI strategy by forming a "superintelligence" team and recruiting former OpenAI executives.
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that these actions signify a shift in the approach by tech giants to AI, from "planning for the future" to "focusing on implementation." Market evaluations are no longer limited to conceptual potential but are increasingly centered on actual commercialization progress.
However, performance within the technology sector remains divergent. Meta and Microsoft continue to show strong upward trends, while Alphabet and Amazon are constrained by internal restructuring and external competitive pressures, resulting in weaker share price performance. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes this reflects a shift in investor valuation logic—from previous "growth expectations" to a greater emphasis on "profit sustainability."
Enterprise AI service providers such as Oracle have performed notably well, successfully converting AI technology into stable cash flows through large-scale enterprise contracts. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that over the next three to six months, investors will place greater value on the tangible contributions of AI to revenue structure, rather than merely its technological narrative. Companies with clear business models and proven execution capabilities will stand out in the next round of valuation reappraisals.