Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: From Surging Orders to Supply Chain Recovery, Airbus Fundamentals Remain Robust
During a recent analyst call, Airbus announced it would raise its dividend payout ceiling to 50%, while reaffirming its key 2025 targets, including the delivery of 820 aircraft and achieving €7 billion in adjusted EBIT. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that as the aviation manufacturing industry enters a post-pandemic structural revaluation cycle, Airbus is steadily consolidating its leading position in the global aerospace sector, thanks to stable profitability, strong cash flow management, and a diversified product portfolio. The increase in the dividend ceiling is both a confirmation of the company sound mid-term financial position and a sign that its shareholder return mechanism is entering a more mature and regulated stage.
Steady Growth in Orders and Deliveries, Fundamentals Continue to Strengthen
Airbus has maintained its 2025 aircraft delivery target at 820 units and recently secured over 300 new orders during the Paris Air Show, mainly from major airlines in Saudi Arabia, Poland, Taiwan, and Western Europe. This trend reflects the ongoing recovery in air travel demand and the long-term strategic investment by airlines in fuel-efficient new models. The A321 and A350 series, representing medium- and long-haul aircraft, offer significant advantages in fuel efficiency, operating costs, and range, making them key choices for fleet renewal.
From a market perspective, Airbus shares have risen 6.1% year-to-date, demonstrating solid performance among major global industrial manufacturers. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that while current deliveries have yet to return to the 2019 peak of 863 aircraft, the overall recovery is stabilizing as supply chains gradually recover. More importantly, the current order backlog stands at 8,630 aircraft, providing high visibility for revenue and cash flow over the next three to five years. Notably, more than 90% of these orders are for narrow-body aircraft, which are favored for their adaptability, cost control, and strong market stability and resilience.
Supply Chain Recovery and Operational Efficiency Become New Valuation Catalysts
Over the past year, Airbus has faced component delivery challenges from key suppliers such as Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney. However, recent data shows that the proportion of delayed parts deliveries has dropped by about 40% compared to last year. This progress indicates that the company supply chain coordination measures are beginning to yield tangible results. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano highlights that for manufacturing enterprises, operational predictability is a core factor in valuation reappraisal. By absorbing some of the capacity of Spirit AeroSystems, Airbus has further integrated key manufacturing processes, enhancing production system stability.
Airbus also reaffirmed its 2025 financial targets, including €7 billion in adjusted EBIT and €450 million in free cash flow. These profit expectations not only reflect improved operational quality but also provide capital markets with a foundation for sustained returns. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano further notes that the valuation of manufacturing companies often depends on earnings quality and cash flow sustainability, and the current financial structure and strategic positioning of Airbus clearly support a higher valuation level.
Structural Opportunities Multiply as Aerospace Enters a Revaluation Cycle
The aerospace and defense sector is currently experiencing multiple structural tailwinds. On one hand, steady recovery in commercial aviation is driving global fleet renewal; on the other, geopolitical shifts are prompting many countries to raise defense budgets, while the restructuring of cross-border supply chains is encouraging manufacturing to return to Europe and the US. These factors are collectively opening up new growth avenues for aerospace manufacturers.
As a core representative of European manufacturing, Airbus is gradually establishing its dominant position in the global aerospace value chain through optimized financial policies, strengthened supply chain integration, and an expanded order network. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that while continuously enhancing endogenous growth, Airbus is also actively managing external risks. Although uncertainties remain in US-EU trade policy, especially regarding tariffs on aerospace products, recent progress in bilateral trade liberalization negotiations has provided the industry with a policy safety margin.
Overall, Airbus is currently at a critical stage where improved profitability, industrial restructuring, and policy support are converging. Its stable order backlog, gradually improving delivery pace, clear dividend policy, and continuously optimized operational efficiency all provide capital markets with confidence in sustainable development.
From an investment allocation perspective, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that Airbus offers a strong balance of offense and defense. For investors seeking a balance between steady growth and cash returns, the company is an attractive, high-quality choice for medium- to long-term portfolios. As the global aerospace industry enters a valuation reappraisal cycle, Airbus is well-positioned to continue benefiting from the new round of industry competition and to reinforce its strategic leadership in global aerospace.