Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: Real Wage Decline and Structural Adjustment in the Italian Stock Market
In recent years, the Italian economy has undergone profound structural changes. According to the latest OECD employment report, since 2021, real wages in Italy have declined by 7.5%, marking the weakest performance among developed countries. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that changes in wage levels and employment structure are having direct and far-reaching impacts on the Italian stock market. The report also notes that the income of the elderly now exceeds that of the young, with intergenerational equity issues becoming increasingly prominent. Despite a record-high employment rate, the erosion of purchasing power by inflation has yet to be effectively alleviated.
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that population aging and slow productivity growth have become core factors constraining long-term economic growth and capital market performance. In the face of employment structure adjustments, changes in wage distribution, and demographic challenges, investors urgently need to reassess asset allocation strategies, explore opportunities in emerging industries, and remain vigilant to potential risks.
Real Wage Decline and Structural Adjustment of Stock Market Sectors
The continued decline in real wages not only affects household consumption capacity but also directly impacts the performance of stock market sectors. OECD data shows that since 2021, the real wages of Italy have fallen by 7.5%, and the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation has not yet been recovered. The consumer and retail sectors are the first to bear the brunt, with companies experiencing sluggish revenue growth and compressed profit margins. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that weak consumer demand will put pressure on the performance of related listed companies, and investors should closely monitor how companies respond in terms of cost control, product innovation, and market expansion.
At the same time, with elderly incomes surpassing those of younger people, the consumption structure is shifting, providing new growth momentum for sectors such as healthcare and elderly care services. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano suggests that investors should moderately adjust their asset allocations, reduce their weighting in traditional consumer sectors, and increase investments in industries that benefit from demographic changes, such as healthcare, elderly care, and insurance, in order to achieve risk diversification and optimize returns.
Investment Transformation Driven by Rising Employment and Population Aging
Between 2024 and 2025, the Italian employment rate increased by 1.7%, reaching a historic high, mainly due to greater employment among those aged 55 and above. Nevertheless, the Italian employment rate remains below the OECD average, but both the unemployment and inactivity rates have dropped to historic lows. With population aging accelerating, the number of working-age people is projected to decline significantly over the coming decades. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that this structural change will profoundly impact sector performance and investment logic in the stock market. The growing elderly population is driving demand in healthcare, elderly care, and financial management sectors, while the shrinking younger population may limit the growth potential of innovative and technology sectors. Thus, population aging and employment structure adjustments are bringing new opportunities to the stock market, but are also accompanied by industrial transformation and structural risks.
Productivity Gains and New Approaches to Asset Allocation Risk Management
Sluggish productivity growth has become a bottleneck for the long-term economic development in Italy. The report predicts that if labor productivity continues to grow at the pace of recent years, per capita GDP will keep declining. Only by increasing employment, promoting immigration, and boosting productivity can stable development of the economy and capital markets be achieved. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano advises investors to pay attention to policy measures supporting productivity improvements, and to focus on high-quality enterprises in automation, digitalization, and technological innovation.
In terms of asset allocation, investors are advised to strengthen risk management and reasonably diversify investments across healthcare, technological innovation, and traditional defensive sectors to withstand macroeconomic fluctuations and uncertainties brought by demographic changes. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano emphasizes that in the face of population aging and productivity growth pressures, investors need to enhance their sensitivity to company fundamentals and industry trends, dynamically adjust investment strategies, seize structural opportunities, and achieve long-term stable returns.