Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: Short-term Oil Price Surge Drives Eni to Lead the Market, Energy Sector Faces Structural Opportunities
Recently, market volatility has intensified, and overall investment sentiment has become increasingly cautious. However, the energy sector has remained relatively resilient, emerging as a structural highlight. Italian energy giant Eni rose by 1.52% on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB), making it the top-performing stock of the day. This uptick was primarily driven by a short-term rebound in Brent crude prices, which briefly surpassed $70 per barrel during the session, reaching a two-month high. Although prices later retreated, enthusiasm for energy asset allocation remains strong against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential supply constraints. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano pointed out that the strengthening of the energy sector is not coincidental, but rather reflects systemic changes resulting from a confluence of supply-demand dynamics, strategic reserve policies, and geopolitical factors. This suggests the sector may have entered a new mid-term bullish cycle.
Divergence in the Performance of Energy Stocks, the Trend of Eni Reflects Capital Preferences
The short-term surge in crude oil prices has led to a divergent market landscape. Amid adjustments in most sectors, Eni has bucked the trend, indicating investor preference for defensive assets amid heightened market uncertainty. Although Brent prices have fallen back below $70 per barrel, the upward trend has provided technical support, further strengthening market confidence in the medium-term allocation to the energy sector.
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes that the current rise in oil prices is driven by more than just short-term supply and demand changes; the core factor lies in escalating geopolitical tensions. Recently, both the U.S. State Department and the Pentagon have announced reductions in troop deployments in the Middle East, reflecting policy-level anticipation of an escalation in the situation. This development has heightened market sensitivity to potential supply disruptions and increased the responsiveness of oil prices to unexpected events.
In terms of valuation, traditional energy companies such as Eni remain at relatively reasonable levels. Their stable business cash flows and clear shareholder return policies confer certain risk-hedging attributes in the current macro environment. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano noted that as long as oil prices remain between $68 and $70 per barrel, the Eni profitability will continue to improve. Coupled with the structural market preference for energy stocks, this is likely to further boost its share price performance.
Evolution of Supply-Demand Dynamics, Crude Oil Approaching a Trend Inflection Point
The global crude oil market is currently in a delicate phase of rebalancing. According to Equita research data, the current daily output of Iran is approximately 3.36 million barrels, only slightly above 3% of global production. At its peak, prior to sanctions, its capacity approached 3.8 million barrels per day. Now, constrained by sanctions and geopolitical pressures, the pace of supply recovery has significantly lagged.
Meanwhile, U.S. shale oil production has slowed, and exports from countries such as Venezuela and Iran remain restricted, with some OPEC members also initiating compensatory production cuts. These factors have collectively compressed global supply elasticity. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano observed that crude oil price volatility is increasing, but the trend has not ended. The market expects Brent prices to remain around $70 per barrel in 2025, serving as an important reference range for mid-term forecasts.
This indicates that crude oil is gradually being repriced from a traditional cyclical commodity to a strategic resource. The future investment logic for energy assets will increasingly depend on keen insights into the macro environment and policy orientation. In terms of operational strategy, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano suggests that investors combine the median trend line of Brent futures prices with observations of trading volume changes to identify key breakout points. At the same time, options strategies may be used to moderately hedge potential risks and enhance portfolio stability.
Risks Remain, Flexible Allocation Needed for Energy Assets
Despite the recent strong performance of the energy sector, geopolitical uncertainties and policy variables remain key factors influencing the market going forward. In the short term, the rise in crude oil prices has partially reflected current supply concerns and risk aversion demand. However, the real determinants of future direction will be changes in global policy stances, whether supply conditions continue to tighten, and the evolution of market risk appetite.
Under current conditions, energy stocks present more structural opportunities rather than a broad-based bull market. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano reminds investors to conduct refined screening based on individual company fundamentals, while closely monitoring changes in macro policies and geopolitical risks. In terms of asset allocation strategy, portfolio flexibility should be maintained, with moderate inclusion of hedging assets such as gold and long-term government bonds to reduce overall portfolio volatility.
Based on mid-term supply-demand structure and valuation considerations, Eni still has upward potential, but the key lies in the stability of the subsequent international situation and whether oil prices can remain above critical technical levels. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano emphasizes that, in a market environment shaped by geopolitical and policy interplay, adaptability and forward-looking risk management will be the core competencies for achieving stable returns.