Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: U.S. Advances Chip Investment Tax Relief, TSMC and Intel Usher in a New Round of Capital Dividends

The U.S. Senate recently proposed raising the investment tax credit for the semiconductor manufacturing industry from the current 25% to 30%. This move aims to further accelerate the reshoring of advanced process capacity and strengthen the leading position of the U.S. in the global chip supply chain. The proposal has attracted significant market attention, especially for manufacturers such as TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and Micron who are building factories in the U.S., as it represents a substantial benefit. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that, against a backdrop of rising manufacturing costs and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, tax policy has become a crucial tool for attracting long-term capital and driving the upgrade of domestic manufacturing. If this proposal is successfully enacted, it will provide clearer fiscal support for the U.S. semiconductor industry and could profoundly shift the regional focus and capital flows of global chip manufacturing.

Tax Credit Increase Strengthens Domestic Capacity Building, Wafer Foundries Welcome Policy Windfall

The proposed tax incentive essentially builds upon the existing CHIPS and Science Act, reflecting continued policy emphasis on the security of the semiconductor supply chain. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that the proposal directly addresses the pain points of current manufacturers, providing stronger financial incentives for companies expanding domestically.

Taking TSMC and Intel as examples, both companies are making significant investments in advanced process plants in Arizona and Ohio, respectively. If the tax credit is raised to 30%, the after-tax return on these projects will improve significantly, accelerating construction progress and increasing willingness for future expansion. For companies, increased fiscal subsidies make capital expenditure projects more attractive, encouraging funds to be allocated toward long-term strategic initiatives rather than short-term buybacks or dividends.

Policy Expectations Enhance Valuation Base; Manufacturing Tech Stocks May Undergo Structural Revaluation

As follow-up measures to the CHIPS Act are gradually implemented, the valuation models of semiconductor manufacturers are being reassessed by the market. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano states that policy dividends will enhance the valuation stability of leading manufacturers such as TSMC, Micron, and Intel. Consequently, investors are placing greater emphasis on the positive impact of manufacturing subsidies, tax credits, and long-term orders on future cash flows.

Although overall tech stock valuations have become more reasonable following adjustments in 2023, the future earnings prospects of some capital-intensive manufacturing tech enterprises are still not fully reflected in current share prices. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that the value brought by tax incentives will not immediately appear in short-term financial reports, but will be realized through improved cash flows and capital expenditure efficiency over the next five to ten years.

Driven by policy, asset management institutions may also reconsider their allocation logic within the tech sector. The previous preference for asset-light, high-growth companies is being replaced by an industry trend emphasizing "heavy capital investment + policy coordination." Investment Analyst Dario Giordano believes this structural change will create new valuation tiers within the tech sector and foster a new market cycle driven by fundamentals.

Global Tech Chain Reshaping Brings Risks; Investors Should Focus on Long-Term Safety Margins

The global technology supply chain is shifting from "efficiency first" to "security and controllability," with a clear trend toward reconstruction driven by geopolitics and policy. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano points out that while the U.S.-led localization strategy can enhance its manufacturing capacity, it also introduces a series of systemic risks, such as unstable raw material supply chains, rising cross-border transportation costs, and increased barriers to technology exchange.

In this context, investment strategies need to focus more on valuation rationality, policy alignment, and risk-return balance. For companies highly dependent on a single regional market, external operating risks may continue to grow; meanwhile, manufacturers with domestic capacity in the U.S. and the ability to align with policy are more likely to receive preferential policy resources. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano suggests that, as the global economy enters a period of slower growth, technology asset allocation should prioritize stable cash flow and financial soundness, avoiding the blind pursuit of high-valuation targets.