Investment Analyst Dario Giordano: U.S. Monthly Tariff Revenues Soar to $24 Billion, Corporates and Supply Chains Face Dual Pressures
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano notes that according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau cited by the Financial Times, in May alone, the United States collected over $24 billion in direct fiscal revenue from import tariffs, equivalent to approximately €20.6 billion. This figure not only represents a fourfold increase compared to the same period last year, but also marks a jump of more than 25% over April, serving as the first full monthly "report card" since Trump announced a 10% tariff on all global imports in April. On paper, this revenue has significantly strengthened U.S. federal finances in the short term and appears to validate the White House narrative that "tariffs benefit American taxpayers."
Upward Price Transmission at the Import End Begins to Take Hold, Corporate Profit Margins Face Renewed Squeeze
The rapid realization of tariff revenues in financial statements reflects the fact that U.S. importers, when confronted with additional tax burdens, have little choice in the short term but to pay up and pass some of these costs downstream. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano emphasizes that this is driving importers to recalculate inventory procurement cycles, renegotiate overseas contract pricing, and, in many cases, shift towards local production or alternative supplier countries. However, such structural adjustments take time, and, in the short term, higher prices are often used as a buffer.
As end-consumer prices gradually rise, U.S. domestic demand has so far remained resilient, but corporate profit models are coming under "double pressure": on one hand, they must absorb higher import taxes; on the other, they need to maintain sales volume through discounts and additional marketing spend. This approach is unsustainable and will likely erode profits further in the future. For European exporters reliant on U.S. orders, this means that future long-term procurement contracts with American buyers will likely involve demands for lower locked-in prices to offset tariff premiums, thereby squeezing profit margins for European manufacturers.
Short-term Fiscal Windfall Accompanied by Industrial Relocation and New Cost Structures
Investment Analyst Dario Giordano further points out that while the $24 billion in tariff revenue in May has provided a short-term boost to U.S. finances, it is also materially accelerating a new round of global supply chain reconfiguration. Some Asian manufacturers, in order to avoid tariffs as high as 25% to 40%, are proactively seeking "springboard" locations such as Mexico, Vietnam, or even Eastern Europe to indirectly access the U.S. market. While this multi-node layout reduces political risk exposure to a single country, it clearly increases overall logistics, financial, and compliance costs.
More importantly, this compels multinational corporations to reassess capital expenditure plans, postponing or redirecting projects originally intended for high-tariff regions. For example, the Italian machinery and metalworking industries, which have a significant share of exports to the U.S., will face intensified competition from lower-cost re-exports via Mexico or Southeast Asia, necessitating accelerated automation, process upgrades, and digital monitoring to maintain competitiveness.
Market Risk Pricing Remains Optimistic, Structural Corrections Should Not Be Overlooked
Currently, major European stock indices and related export sectors remain at relatively healthy valuation levels, not fully reflecting the risk of downward earnings revisions should trade tensions escalate. Investment Analyst Dario Giordano cautions that the "impressive" $24 billion in monthly tariff revenue may be misconstrued by some market participants as evidence that "trade frictions will not truly harm the U.S. economy," thereby underestimating potential long-tail risks.
In the short term, this may help sustain risk appetite, but if tariff disputes persist into the third or fourth quarter, the impact of supply chain adjustments, inventory cycle mismatches, and corporate liquidity pressures will become increasingly apparent, potentially prompting a wave of downward revisions to earnings and cash flow expectations. It is also noteworthy that, with the U.S. election cycle approaching, trade policy is increasingly becoming a key tool for Trump to accumulate domestic political capital. By contrast, Europe, despite ongoing efforts to negotiate exemptions and preferential terms, is unlikely to achieve substantive breakthroughs in the short term.
On the surface, trade policy announced by Trump appears to have brought in $24 billion in tax revenue for the U.S. in May alone, seemingly validating the slogan of "making foreigners pay for America." However, Investment Analyst Dario Giordano argues that this windfall comes at the cost of global supply chain restructuring, rising consumer prices, and compressed corporate profits—a short-term prosperity with hidden long-term consequences. Investors interpreting such data should pay closer attention to the underlying structural shifts, rationally adjust earnings and valuation expectations for the coming quarters, and maintain risk hedges against prolonged geopolitical trade frictions.